How The Ukraine War Ends: A Win-Win or Lose-Lose Scenario?
After two years of the Russia - NATO proxy conflict in Ukraine, the path to a final outcome is unclear but the final outcome itself appears fixed.
The ongoing war in Ukraine has shaken the geopolitical landscape, drawing attention to the fragile balance between Eastern and Western power blocs. As the war drags on, it becomes increasingly likely that the final outcome may resemble both a win-win and lose-lose scenario—a paradox that reflects the complexity of the conflict. While neither Russia nor Ukraine is likely to achieve an unequivocal victory, each side may gain and lose in ways that will have lasting consequences for the region and the world.
The Emerging Geopolitical Reality
From the outset, the conflict in Ukraine was never just about territorial control. Russia's military intervention in Ukraine is part of a larger strategy aimed at countering NATO expansion and preserving its sphere of influence. Ukraine, on the other hand, seeks to protect its sovereignty and align itself more closely with the West through NATO and EU membership.
As the war has evolved, it has become clear that a decisive military victory for either side is unlikely. Russia, despite its considerable military power, has struggled to achieve the swift and overwhelming success it may have anticipated. Meanwhile, Ukraine, despite its resilience and support from Western allies, faces significant challenges in completely expelling Russian forces from its territory.
Given this stalemate, a negotiated settlement appears to be the most plausible outcome—a settlement that could lead to both sides claiming some form of victory, even as they also face significant losses.
Ukraine's Perspective: A Strategic Victory with a Price
Potential Gains: For Ukraine, the most significant potential gain from a negotiated settlement would be formal integration into the Western sphere of influence through NATO and EU membership. This would be seen as a major strategic victory, offering Ukraine protection under NATO's collective security umbrella and access to the economic and political benefits of EU membership. Ukraine's desire for Western integration has been a driving force behind its resistance to Russian aggression, and achieving this goal would represent a powerful statement of sovereignty and independence.
Potential Losses: However, any settlement that leaves parts of Ukraine under Russian control would be a bitter pill to swallow. Losing territories like Crimea, parts of Donetsk, and Luhansk—areas that Russia currently occupies—could lead to internal strife and accusations that President Zelensky and his government failed to secure a complete victory despite the immense sacrifices made by the Ukrainian people. The loss of life, destruction of infrastructure, and displacement of millions of citizens could become lasting scars on Ukraine’s national consciousness.
Moreover, the concessions made to Russia might be seen as validating the Kremlin’s strategy of using military force to achieve political goals. This could have long-term implications for the region, particularly if other countries in Russia's sphere of influence view the conflict as a precedent for future aggression.
Russia's Perspective: A Pyrrhic Victory?
Potential Gains: From Russia's perspective, consolidating control over certain Ukrainian territories would be framed as a victory. Russia's goal of establishing a buffer zone between itself and NATO would be partially realized, and it could deploy additional military assets, including missiles and air defenses, in these areas to bolster its security. Domestically, the Kremlin could portray this outcome as a successful defense of Russian interests, reinforcing the narrative that Russia will go to any lengths to protect its national security.
Potential Losses: However, Russia’s gains may come at a significant cost. The war has not only strained Russia’s military and economy but also led to NATO expanding further into Eastern Europe, with countries like Finland and Sweden joining the alliance. This expansion represents a strategic defeat for Russia, whose original goal was to prevent NATO from encroaching on its borders.
Furthermore, Russia's international reputation has been severely damaged. The invasion has led to widespread condemnation, sanctions, and isolation from much of the global community. Even within Russia, there may be growing discontent over the high cost of the war, both in terms of human lives and economic hardship.
President Putin could face criticism from within his own ranks, with opponents arguing that the war ultimately failed to achieve its broader objectives. Instead of weakening NATO, Russia’s actions have strengthened the alliance and pushed Ukraine closer to the West.
A Paradoxical Outcome: Win-Win or Lose-Lose?
The outcome of the war in Ukraine is likely to be seen as both a win-win and lose-lose scenario—a paradoxical result where each side gains something but loses something equally significant.
For Ukraine, the war may result in a major geopolitical win if it secures NATO and EU membership, solidifying its place in the Western world. However, this would come at the cost of territorial integrity and a heavy toll on its population and infrastructure. The narrative of victory would be complicated by the loss of land and lives, leading to internal divisions and potential political fallout.
For Russia, controlling parts of Ukraine would allow it to claim victory on the surface, but the long-term consequences could overshadow any immediate gains. NATO’s continued expansion, coupled with economic and diplomatic isolation, would weaken Russia’s global standing and raise questions about the effectiveness of its military strategy. Domestically, the war could undermine Putin’s leadership, with critics pointing to the high price paid for a victory that ultimately strengthened Russia’s adversaries.
The Broader Geopolitical Implications
Beyond Ukraine and Russia, the conflict has far-reaching implications for the global order. The war has accelerated the realignment of international alliances, with Europe and the United States reinforcing their commitment to NATO and increasing defense spending in response to the perceived Russian threat. This has led to a new era of militarization in Europe, with the potential for a prolonged standoff between NATO and Russia.
The conflict has also highlighted the limits of diplomacy and international institutions in preventing or resolving such wars. Despite numerous efforts to broker peace, the war in Ukraine has shown that when great powers are involved, negotiations often come only after significant bloodshed and destruction.
Conclusion
As the war in Ukraine continues to unfold, the likelihood of a negotiated settlement that leaves both sides claiming some form of victory seems increasingly likely. However, this victory will be accompanied by significant losses, making it difficult to categorize the outcome as a clear win for either side. Instead, the war may ultimately be remembered as a conflict where both Russia and Ukraine experienced a mix of gains and losses, reshaping the geopolitical landscape in ways that will be felt for years to come.
The paradox of a win-win or lose-lose scenario reflects the tragic complexity of modern warfare, where even the winners often find themselves grappling with the heavy costs of their victory.